The time‐varying performance of UK analyst recommendation revisions: Do market conditions matter?

This study examines the time‐varying performance of investment strategies following analyst recommendation revisions in the UK stock market, with specific emphasis on the impact of changing market conditions. We find a negative relationship between the recommendation performance and market conditions as measured in terms of past market return and market volatility. In particular, the upgrade (downgrade) portfolio generates significantly positive (negative) net abnormal returns in bad market conditions (e.g., the dot‐com bubble burst in 2000 and the credit crisis in 2007), but not in other periods of time. Moreover, our non‐temporal threshold regression analysis shows that the reported negative relationship disappears when market conditions become better, i.e., when the past market return (market volatility) is higher (lower) than a certain level, indicating the importance of taking non‐linearity into account in the long sample period as examined in this study. Our time‐series bootstrap simulations further confirm that the superior recommendation performance in bad market conditions is not due to random chance; analysts have certain skills in making valuable up/downward revisions in bad markets.     

禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

生态文明建设背景财政扶持、林权改革对林业生产效率的影响

基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国林业生产效率的区域差异和时序变化进行研究,运用面板Tobit模型检验财政扶持对林业生产效率的影响并验证林权改革对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:在生态文明建设背景下,林业生产效率存在显著的区域差异;技术进步对于全要素生产率的提升起到重要推进作用;财政扶持与林权改革均对林业生产效率产生了正向影响,但林权改革并没有对财政扶持与林业生产效率的关系产生积极调节作用。因此,各省份应当通过加大政府扶持力度、优化投资方式、深化集体林权制度改革等措施促进林业生产效率提升。     

老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

Horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum strategies with respect to various risk metrics: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This paper focuses on the horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum (IMOM) with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Using the A-share individual stocks in the Chinese market from January 1997 to December 2017, we first evaluate the performance of the weekly momentum based on raw returns and idiosyncratic returns, respectively. After that the univariate portfolio analysis is conducted to investigate the return predictability with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Further, we perform a comparative study on the performance of the IMOM portfolios with respect to various risk metrics. At last, we explore the possible explanations to IMOM as well as risk-based IMOM portfolios. We find that 1) there are prevailing contrarian effect and IMOM effect for the whole sample; 2) the negative relations exist between most of the idiosyncratic risk metrics and the cross-sectional stock returns, and better performance is linked to idiosyncratic volatility (IVol) and maximum drawdowns (IMDs); 3) additionally, the IVol-based and IMD-based IMOM portfolios exhibit better explanatory power to the IMOM portfolios with respect to other risk metrics; 4) finally, higher profitability of IMOM as well as IVol-based and IMD-based IMOM portfolios is found to be related to upside market states, high levels of liquidity and high levels of investor sentiment.     

Can Direct Payments Facilitate Agricultural Commercialisation: Evidence from a Transition Country

We investigate the impact of direct payments on agricultural commercialisation in Kosovo. Kosovo is one of the poorest countries in Europe but, with European assistance, provides substantial funds to support agriculture, made up of many small and often semi‐subsistence farms. Thus, the effect of this support is a central policy issue. Identifying the effect of direct payments on market participation faces endogeneity issues arising from the possible simultaneous determination of participation in support programmes and market participation. In order to achieve proper identification of the endogenous direct payments, we use a strategy of targeted identification search that employs several different methodological approaches. We find that direct payments for fruit and vegetables, and those for cereals and oilseeds have a positive effect on market participation. However, we cannot identify any definite effect of livestock payments.     

机构交叉持股对企业价值的影响

基于2007-2018年中国A股上市公司数据,本文考察了机构交叉持股对企业价值的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,机构交叉持股显著提高了企业价值,在考虑内生性问题和替换主要变量后结论依然较为稳健。交叉持股机构投资者能够成为更加积极的监督者,主动参与公司治理,缓解代理问题,同时促进同行业企业间产品市场协作,改善企业的产品市场表现,进而提升企业价值。此外,相比其他类型的投资者,长期、独立以及稳定型的交叉持股机构投资者对企业价值的促进作用更显著,进一步印证了监督治理渠道的作用。机构交叉持股推动产品市场协作,主要是通过提高企业创新能力和营业利润率。本文结论证实了机构交叉持股的正向协同效应,对完善中国资本市场制度体系和促进企业可持续发展具有重要意义。     

湖北省优化营商环境分析与优化研究

良好的营商环境对提升区域综合竞争力具有重大意义。本文采用近年湖北省营商环境相关数据,运用主成分分析法运算得分,从经贸环境、社会环境、基础设施、生态环境、服务环境等湖北营商环境指标,揭示相关政策措施对湖北省营商环境的促进作用,以期为相关部门完善优化营商环境政策,提升湖北省营商环境提供参考。     

The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market crash risk in China. For this purpose, we first estimated the conditional skewness of the return distribution from a GARCH with skewness (GARCH-S) model as the proxy for the equity market crash risk of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We then constructed a fear index for COVID-19 using data from the Baidu Index. Based on the findings, conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating that the pandemic increases stock market crash risk. Moreover, the fear sentiment exacerbates such risk, especially with regard to the impact of COVID-19. In other words, when the fear sentiment is high, the stock market crash risk is more strongly affected by the pandemic. Our evidence is robust for the number of daily deaths and global cases.     

环境公平感知、社会信任与农户低碳生产行为*——以农膜、秸秆处理为例

［目的］研究旨在探讨环境公平感知和社会信任与农户低碳生产行为之间的关系，为促进农户生产行为向低碳化方向转变提供对策建议。［方法］基于陕西和甘肃两省的村域调查数据，以农膜和秸秆处理为例，运用二元logistic模型探讨环境公平感知和社会信任对农户低碳生产行为的影响，并结合分层回归分析了社会信任在环境公平感知和农户低碳生产行为间的调节效应。［结果］（1）在环境公平感知维度中，人际公平感知正向影响农户的农膜和秸秆处理行为； （2）对社会信任来讲，人际信任对农户农膜和秸秆处理行为均有显著的促进作用，而制度信任仅对农户秸秆处理行为具有正向影响； （3）人际信任在种际公平感知和农户农膜处理行为之间具有显著的正向调节效应，而制度信任在两者之间具有显著的负向调节效应； 同样，人际信任在人际公平感知和农户秸秆处理行为之间具有正向调节效应，而制度信任弱化了人际公平感知对农户秸秆处理行为的影响。［结论］环境公平感知和社会信任是影响农户低碳生产行为的关键因素，且社会信任在种际公平感知和农户农膜处理行为之间以及在人际公平感知和农户秸秆处理行为之间具有显著的调节作用。